TCU continues to fly under the radar and they are a few plays from being 7-0 this year. TCU is the best offense and defense that Oklahoma State has faced this season to date and they'll have their hands full at home against a well coached team that is playing more freshman than anyone in the country, but they are quality freshmen like Devonte Fields who already has 7.5 sacks. TCU brings the Big 12's best defense to town as they are going up against a balanced offense from Oklahoma State. The Cowboys though like TCU are having some issues at QB, although it has never mattered in the past we have seen their offense sputter a bit in conference play.
TCU went into three OT's with Texas Tech, an offense that's very similar to Oklahoma State. I would say Texas Tech has a better offense and clearly a more experienced QB in Seth Doege as Oklahoma State is getting ready to start a true freshman in Wes Lunt who has played this season already. TCU lead the Big 12 in interceptions, run defense, third down defense so it will be a challenge for Oklahoma State and despite the 56 points they gave up to Texas Tech they actually held Doege to under 200 yards passing for 3 quarters + 4 minutes before they started to get picked apart. Their defense has gotten beat by some big plays, but that's something that good coaching fixes and that's what Gary Patterson has, he has a solid approach and motivates his players and I"m confident they'll fix this issue.
We spoke about Oklahoma State's offense and Johnathan Randle is explosive out of the backfield but TCU is 27th against the run. Oklahoma State does not have the defense that Texas Tech has this year and they will have their hands full with Trevone Boykin who has put up 105 points the last two weeks since taking over at QB for Casey Pachal. He's a dual threat QB and that's something that Oklahomas State has not faced since their road game to Arizona where they gave up 59 points. If TCU can avoid turnovers they win and I think they will here on the road because Oklahoma State has not forced the turnovers like they did a year ago to win games. They sit 117th in takeaways and 105th in turnover margin so if anything TCU should be able to expose Oklahoma State's new QB who hasn't faced a defense that can get into the backfield like TCU.
Some other key stats. tCU is 5th in third down defense and they've been good on the road holding opponents to just 25% conversions. Oklahoma State is 9th in converting third downs but they've been successful going up against teams that are ranked on average 71st in stopping opponents on third downs. TCU can stop the run on first down and set up third and longs. TCU on the other hand is starting to get their offense clicking over the last three games they have converted on third down 47% of the time. Oklahoma State is nothing special ranked 55th at stopping third down conversions. To win this game TCU has to score TD's not field goals. It's something they struggled with against Texas Tech, as they kicked 6 field goals, but it still took triple OT for Tech to escape with a win. Now Tech has been better in red zone defense than Oklahoma State as the Cowboys have allowed 71% TD's in conference play and 71% overall on the year. Their offense also has struggled scoring TD's in the red zone just 46% a far cry from their 72% season average. TCU has hold opponents to 53% TD's in the red zone and should give Oklahoma State issues.
