Okay so here it is, the game LSU circled in the off season and it seems like the folks who scheduled the game wanted them to have every advantage they could. LSU not only hosts Alabama on what everyone knew was going to be the a game that had national implications, but they gave LSU the week off before. Don't sleep on Les Miles he's beaten Nick Saban before and with extra preparation should be able to put up a good fight in this game as the 6 head to head battles between these two coaches have been remarkably close on the scoreboard and on the stat sheet. I expect nothing less from this match up on Saturday night in Death Valley.
First of all no matter what anyone tells you Alabama has clearly had the weaker SEC schedule thus far having to play an over rated Miss State team at home is the highlight? Miss State beat a lot of weak non conference teams, and Alabama also played Tenn, Missouri, Arkansas and Mississippi. Nothing sexy about it that's for sure while LSU in its last three games alone played Texas A&M, the SEC's best offense, Florida, and South Carolina. LSU's pass defense is every bit as good as Alabama's pass defense and they are even better at getting to the QB, while LSU is also better at protecting the QB. Two keys in this game that nobody realizes. Alabama is 13th in getting to the QB 8.16% of drop backs, just 6.67 on the road while LSU is ranked 10th. Bama is also 108th in allowing sacks and A.J. McCarron is banged up because of it. LSU has not been great, but look at the sack defenses they have faced in A&M who is perennially a top 5 pass rush defense, and South Carolina both teams are ranked in the top 20. Bama faced Western Kentucky, but they are a team from the Sun Belt, none of the other opponents are ranked in the top 20 in sack %.
So we spoke about what happens up front and we give LSU the small advantage on both sides based on stats, but being home is an even greater advantage, but we can't help but look at the QB match up which obviously favors the Crimson Tide on paper, but... Zach Mettinberger was recruited for this type of game and this won't be the national title game. Mettinberger has a strong arm and he's completing 63% of his passes at home. I'm not saying he'll have a better game than McCarron, but I don't think there is a big enough advantage on Alabama's side here to warrant getting more than a TD on the road especially when..
Alabama's running game that they lean on so much has not faced a top 15 run defense or run offense while LSU has. In fact other than Michigan's dual threat 16th ranked run offense that's not comparable to the SEC, Alabama has not faced a top 50 rushing offense. LSU is ranked 27th but they average 5.6 ypc at home and feature 4 running backs averaging over 5.96 ypc, and Spencer Ware who is averaging 4.11. Their RB will be fresh all game long and should find some room for manageable third downs against Alabama's defense that is a lot different than last year's national title team that lost 5 starters. Alabama is 17th in rushing offense 5.2 ypc, but they'll face an LSU run defense that allows just 1.6 ypc at home and has been tested by good rushing offenses already this year.
The small things are special teams and other random stats that not many people look at. There is a lot of talk about which defense is better and I spoke about how LSU is just as good and playing at home should give them a huge advantage, but if you need a stat that tells you more LSU has 65 TFL this year and are averaging over 9 per conference game. That's 19 more than Alabama while they have also allowed 4 less TFL on offense than Alabama. That was the biggest difference in the national championship game last year as Alabama dominated the point of attack. With the extra week to prepare, + home field advantage, revenge, and all that's on the table for LSU I think there is a lot of value here and I would be shocked if the Tigers didn't cover this spread.
