We have a guaranteed to go 2-0 package for you with two huge games with four teams coming from the PAC 12. Both plays come with full in depth analysis for your betting confidence. We are off a good midweek and look to continue to right the ship so don't miss out on these two winners guaranteed to both winners or you'll get my NFL picks for free.


USC is in a major hang over spot and a look ahead spot. First they play an unusual early game which won't help the home crowd at noon. They come off a devastating loss to USC at home and they have UCLA on the road next week who if they beat Arizona State they will be playing to see who goes to the PAC 12 Championship to play Oregon again.
Arizona State is a perfect match up here in my opinion. USC has had major issues against balanced offenses and in particular spread offenses with QB's that can run. Arizona State is 41st in rushing yards and 40th in passing yards. They are led by a trio of running backs and Taylor Kelly who has completing 65% of his passes and added some rushing yards. He's been good on the road in spots with 10 TD and just 3 interceptions.

ON the flip side Arizona State's defense is only allowing 333 yards per game and even held Oregon to nearly 300 fewer yards than USC's highly touted defense did. Arizona State is 7th in the nation in pass defense and that's mostly due to the fact that they are #1 in sack %. Not many people are brave enough to throw on this unit led by DT Will Sutton. I don't think Marqis Lee can have the same type of games that he's been having and I don't know where the motivation will be. There are many other reasons why I like Arizona State, but mostly because USC is over rated. They have arguably one of the best QB's and best receivers in the game yet they are 84th in third down offense and it won't get easier going up against Arizona State which has held conference opponents to just 31% conversions and is ranked 31st in the nation. Arizona State's offense also has gotten to the red zone 13 more times and have allowed 9 fewer attempts by opponents. I think there is a lot value in this line and that's why I like Arizona State to cover and even push USC for a win.


Oregon State +4.5 2.2* play
Stanford is just 2-3 ATS at home and Oregon State has beaten the three physical, run first type offenses that they have faced with nearly identical offensive and defensive numbers across the board. Those teams I'm talking about are Utah, Wisconsin and BYU. All three share a top 30 defense in common with Stanford.

These two teams have also played similar opponents in similar situations in a similar fashion and I just think this game will be close throughout and likely decided by a field goal in a low scoring game. I give Oregon State the edge because they are 21st in passing and that is a good match for Stanford's 106th pass defense. WR Markus Wheaton and Brandin Cooks should create mismatches on the Cardinal secondary. On the flip side Stanford likes to win with the power run game, but they are only ranked 58th in rushing yards this year and they are going up against a 5th ranked run defense. I say they struggle and putting the ball in the hands of first time starter Kevin Hogan is not going to be something that will work. At the end of the day both teams are similar on offense and defense, but Oregon State has played better in the close games. Stanford would be foolish to be looking ahead to Oregon next week, but who knows they already have too much confidence after beating up on the three worst PAC 12 teams the last three weeks.

Where to find Freddy?


site design / logo © 2008 - 2024 freddywills.com