Ohio State has a major advantage in this game coming off a bye week which allowed them to get healthy particularly at LB where they had some depth issues and that will go along way as they have to stop Wisconsin rushing offense. Ohio State is fully capable of doing that particularly because they feature a one dimensional offense as they are ranked 112th in passing offense and now have an unkown in there in Curt Phillips who has spent most of his career injured with 3 different knee surgeries. Wisconsin has played against 3 top 25 run defenses this year and the results have not been good putting up 7, 16, and 13 points losing 2 of them and should have lost the third to Utah State who missed several field goals. Bottom line they have gone 0-3 ATS against top 25 run defense and Ohio State is ranked 16th and they are allowing just 2.64 ypc on the road. Bottom line Ohio State does what Wisconsin does, but they do it better.
Wisconsin's defense will have major issues stopping Ohio State's Braxton Miller. Yes they are the best run defense in the Big Ten, but the only other time they faced a capable running game with multiple threats including a QB was against Nebraska a game they lost and gave up 259 yards. Wisconsin also won't be with a healthy Chris Borland who is their best player on defense at LB. He hurt his hamstring and those injuries tend to linger. Ohio State also has an emotional advantage here off a bye and Wisconsin already has the Legends division wrapped up after last week's blow out of Indiana as Penn State and Ohio State are ineligible. Ohio State will be playing this game like their default bowl game.
Ohio State has major advantages in red zone and on third downs that will allow them to win this game on the road. First of all they are allowing just 33% conversions on the year and are converting 45% good for 30th and 48% in road games while Wisconsin is ranked 108th converting 31% of their third downs, that's what an offense that has no balance will get you. In the red zone Braxton Miller is a difference maker as Ohio State has not only gotten there 9 more times, but they have scored 80% TD's and 77% in conference play to Wisconsin's 63% and 68% percentages. Ohio State's defense too has produced better numbers holding opponents to 48% TD's in the red zone while Wisconsin is ranked 68%. There is also no love lost between these two coaches and you better bet Urban Meyer will flex his coaching muscles with a well prepared game plan off the bye.
This is another interesting game that nobody is talking about. BYU is 1-3 away from home and in 3 of those games they played good run defenses which is the strength of their offense. ONce again they'll play a strong run defense ranked 31st, but San Jose is also 20th in pass defense and ranked 7th in the nation with 34 sacks. QB Riley Nelson will find it hard moving the ball and the Spartans already went on the road and nearly beat Stanford in week 1. I compare that game because BYU has a similar style defense and overall team.
The real difference maker in this game is BYU's depth in the secondary as they lose another player and this time due to suspension. NFL prospect S Joe Sampson got in a fight and now he's no longer going to be able to play which is a huge loss particularly in their nickel package which San Jose can easily take advantage of as QB David Fales is completing 72% of his passes and they are converting on 48% of their third downs at home. Fales will hook with WR Noel Grisby early and often.
