Don't miss out on Friday's post Thanksgiving day feast with two plays starting at 2:30pm out of the SEC conference and a bonus play out of the Big 12. Both plays come with full in depth analysis for your betting confidence.


This game is Arkansas bowl game since they won't be going to one and there will actually be a trophy for the Golden Boot. LSU has cruised by in their season being on the road for just 3 games in which they had just 42 points combined and scored more than 12 points ( the point spread) once. Arkansas 81st defense is nothing to be excited about, but their weakness is against the pass 119th in the country, while they have been stout against the run 26th and are 24th allowing just 3.6 ypc. LSU has always been a run first team and are in the tops in the nation in rushing play %, but they have only averaged 3.89 ypc on the road and 3.2 ypc in their last 3. I don't see this game getting out of hand based on LSU's offense even if they are starting to become more balanced, because Arkansas has the offense to move the ball.

Arkansas started this season as bad as you could and most of the coaching staff will be coaching their last game for this team which is led by 21 seniors including Tyler Wilson at QB and WR Cobi Hamilton who has 80 catches for 1,237 yards. LSU's secondary has not been challenged by anyone. They have faced just 1 team in the top 50 in passing attempts and that was Texas A&M who led LSU 12-0 before they ended up turning the ball over a ton. You could make an argument that Tyler Wilson is the best QB that LSU has faced all year and you better bet he wants to go out on top as a senior, saying "We've got one game left, and we know this is it. So why not go out there and light it up one more time." I don't see a significant edge for LSU in this game even on third down LSU on the road is only converting 19%, and 38% in conference play, while Arkansas is converting nearly 40% overall and their defense has been good enough allowing only 38% conversions at home. Even in the red zone LSU only scoring 50% TD's, 40% conference play and 25% on the road, while Arkansas is at 57% at home and their defense is ironically the same allowing 70% TD's in conference play while LSU is too.

Bottom line this is very much like the situation in 2008 when Arkansas was +7 at home and 4-7 with a season wrapped up they went on to win 31-30 and I can see a crazy game like that again.


West Virginia found their offense again last week against Oklahoma but lost a heart breaker. There is no guarantee they get into a bowl game so they need to still win 1 of their last 2. This team finally gets a break vs. a weak offense although their score from last week would say otherwise, but I think that is why we have a low spread this week. Iowa State is not inside the top 70 in any offensive category. The last time West Virginia played a team even close to that was Maryland who they held to 21 points and won by 10 points. Maryland had a strong defense ranked 15th, and Iowa State just does not have that especially after they lost one of the best LB in the Big 12 in senior Jake Knott. Iowa State is ranked 95th in total defense 114th against the pass as they have just 14 sacks on the season.

Geno Smith and his 70% completion rate should be able to score at will especially since Iowa State has also relied on turnovers. Smith has 0 interceptions on the road and the team has 4 turnovers total. West Virginia also added in Tavon Austin at RB and he had 344 yards. I don't think Iowa State will have an answer and their offense is still not capable in the spread offense that they run as they lack the speed to play out on the perimeter. Iowa State has not been good on third down and that will keep their defense on the field this week.

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