It appears LB Chris Borland will return which is a huge boost, as Boorland commented that he will play in this game. Even without them the defense did a great job vs. Ohio State and Penn State allwoing 3.6 and 3.5 ypc in two OT losses, but none of that matters as they go up against Nebraska with revenge in the Big Ten Championship.
IN the first match up Wisconsin led 20-3 at half time before getting dominated in the second half and losing on the road to Nebraska. The difference was home field advantage to be honest and the fact that Nebraska ran the ball better and stopped the run better. Wisconsin is a totally different team now Montee Ball's season completely turned around and Nebraska who held Wisconsin to 1.4 ypc in that game are allowing 5.5 ypc on the road this year. Wisconsin also should have a healthy Abredaries who torched Nebraska for 142 yards and a TD.
Nebraska boasts the #1 pass defense in yards allowed, but they are also 18th in opponent pass play % as opponents only average 42% passing percentage. When teams do throw On Nebraska they can have success in the play action which is what Wisconsin does well. Wisconsin though is running the ball a ton 70% of the time in their last 3 games and they are doing it well. That's really what this game comes down to and on a neutral field I give Wisconsin the edge. IN conference play they averaged 5.14 ypc to Nebraska's 4.70 and they averaged 5.69 over their last 3 games against good opponents. Their defense allowed 3.68 ypc while Nebraska allowed 4.16 ypc and we already mentioned their struggles to stop the run on the road. Montee Ball also has 7 TD's in 2 games vs. Nebraska.
Wisconsin will send Nebraska a different look with their third starting QB in 5th year senior Curt Phillips who has played well. Wisconsin is catching a ton of crap for backing into this game losing to both Ohio State and Penn State the two teams ahead of them in the division but are ineligible and I think they come out and dominate this game. They did the same thing last year after losing to Michigan State in the regular season only to get revenge in the Championship game.
Nebraska really struggled in pre snap motions in the first match up and I expect them to lose the turnover battle in this game they are -8 on the year while Wisconsin is +5 in conference play. It won't help that Nebraska is without two senior linemen starters one on offense and one on defense for this game. They have also come from behind in 5 of their 7 conference wins which is why we are taking Wisconsin to get out to a fast start with our 1st half play.
Both Florida State are off tough games they lost to their in state rivals and will have a hang over effect. A ton of people are on Georgia Tech saying they don't belong here after Miami took themselves out of picture, but I think they'll use that for motivation. I like how this team played down the stretch with 3 straight wins vs. quality teams in Duke, North Carolina and Maryland. This team also led in the 4th quarter against Clemson earlier this year. FSU has had its own issues at times this year and they just lost their defensive coordinator who will coach this game but got the Kentucky job. I"m sure he is distracted and anxious to take over the program so how can he prepare for the triple option?
Sure Florida State's run defense has been dominant 2.65 on the year, but they just got done allowing 5.19 ypc to Florida and they are 50th in ypc rushing offense, Georgia Tech is in the top 10 and had a quality game against Georgia who has a similar front 7. Florida State will also miss one of their better defensive players in Carradine. Their run defense has also gone up against an average 90th rushing offense and that's not counting the two FCS foes they scheduled earlier in the year. Against the three teams ranked in the top 63 FSU won by 13, 13, and 12 and I expect a similar tight game. After all Georgia Tech is actually better in conference play on third down offense and red zone TD%. They are also +7 in turnover margin to Florida State's -6.
