I really like the Jags here on the road against the Bills. Since Chad Henne took over he has guided them to competitive games with his 6 TD and 1 INT since taking over for Gabbert. Over the last 2 games the Jaguars have scored an average 30.5 points and 389 yards and there is no signs of that stopping vs. the Bills defense. The defense played well for the Bills in the last two games, but I expect them to return to their normal ways on Sunday.
Bills have allowed 5.7 ypc at home this season and 6.0 overall while the Jaguars have struggled to run on the year, but when they have faced poor run defense it seems to be when they play their best including games against the Colts on the road, (a win) and the Colts are ranked 30th vs. the run, and against the 28th ranked Raiders they lost by 3 in OT. Overall the Jaguars have played very well on the road and even have stopped the run allowing 3.7 ypc this season on the road which is huge key if they want to stop the Bills rushing game.
While I think the Bills and CJ Spiller will have success running the ball I think they'll struggle in the red zone. IN their last 25 drives they have just 9 TD's and are ranked 25th overall in TD% while the Jaguars red zone defense is only allowing 47% TD's in the red zone which is good for 10th in the league. That will be huge for the Jaguars who blitz less than anyone else in the league. It just so happens Fitzpatrick has been more effective vs. the blitz so I don't see him having a huge game. Don't sleep on Jason Babin who gave the Jaguars pass rush a boost when they picked him up off waivers this week. He will be critical to the Jaguars game plan and could create some poor decisions by Fitzpatrick. The Bills are ranked 27th in giveaways this year while the Jaguars are taking the ball away 3.2 times per game over their last 3 game which ranks 4th.
