If we were betting the first 3 quarters this bowl season we would be 2-0, but last night San Diego State decided to turn the ball over 3 times leading to 20 points for BYU and had 5 turnovers in all leading to another victory for the public backers which were backed by 67% of the public. That has been how this season has gone and now I’m pretty much even on the season which if you know anything about is not acceptable. Either way I looked in depth into tonight’s match up and I love the game.

Ball State +7.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD); Ball St +260 1* bonus
Keith Wenning is going to play tonight and that’s huge for Ball State which ended the season with 6 straight wins. They have a balanced offense that should give Central Florida plenty of fits after all UCF really only faced one balanced offense and that was Tulsa who they lost to twice. Ball state features two All Star receivers in Willie Snead and Jamill Smitth as well as a powerful running back in Jahwan Edwards who is averaging over 6 yards per carry. This is an offense that rarely turns the ball over and protects their QB ranking 8th in sacks allowed and 31st in turnovers. Central florida has not gotten to the QB this year and has been even worse of late with a 2.54 sack % over their last 3 games. I believe Wenning will have the time he needs to move the chains where Ball State is ranked 15th with a 47.78% conversion percentage on third down (56% in their last 3).

This is also a huge game for Ball State who is 0-5 in their career in bowl games as they were passed over despite being eligible last year. They will be playing the state of Florida where they do plenty of their recruiting and have plenty of alumni making it an easy game to get pumped up for. UCF meanwhile couldn’t win the Conference USA Championship which usually means a hang over in this type of game. This is also a team known for their defense, but they have allowed 501 yards per game over their last 3 games. Meanwhile Ball State’s defense has improved down the stretch they even got to the QB more down the stretch 7.34% of drop backs over their last three. I feel both of these teams are pretty evenly matched and I think oddsmakers have this line far too high based on where the game is being played. Ball State is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 non conference games and I think the MAC continued to get under rated.

Where to find Freddy?