Yesterday was one of the worst Sunday's I've had in a while going winless. I would call some bad luck, and some just bad handicapping, but in the end you can't be successful in this business without learning how to fail and how to make adjustments. I love tonight's game and it's a 5.5* max NFL POD not because I'm chasing but because there are several advantages that you will learn from reading my in depth analysis.


This is a huge game for the Chargers. Actually I think it's a season changing depending on the result. The Colts meanwhile are coming off some big wins against the NFC Wests 49ers and Seahawks. It took every ounce of effort to hold off the Seahawks a week ago and now they have to travel across country to play a Monday night game against a team that's just going to have more energy. Colts also are going to be looking ahead to the Broncos who they will host next Sunday night. Nobody is going to admit to looking ahead to an opponent but Manning returning to Indianapolis is definitely something this team is looking at. The game against the Chargers is like a pre season game before the Super Bowl and the Chargers need a win to stay in playoff contention.

What's new about the Chargers this year? They are able to protect the QB as they are ranked 5th in fewest sack% on the year with a 4.04%. King Dunlap is probable tonight and that's a huge key to this game. Rivers is flying under the radar here and is actually 2nd in the league to only Peyton Manning in QB rating. He gets the benefit of facing the Colts poor run defense thats' bottom of the league in ypc allowed. Rivers with a decent running game and protection is a top tier QB especailly off play action with a healthy Antonio Gates too. There is a reason this team is converting 71% of their red zone appearnces into TD's at home. Colts defense is allowing 70% TD's on the road and a good reason is because opponents are able to run the ball and it becomes harder to keep a team from a TD when you can't stop the run.

The biggest reason why I love the Chargers tonight aside from the scheduling advantage is Phillip Rivers. The Colts have yet to play a pocket passer this season. They've faced Terrel Pryor, Collin Kaepaernick, Russell Wilson, Chad Henne, and Ryan Tannehill. Tanehill is the closest to a pocket passer and he beat the Colts in their own building. Wilson and Kaepernick are considered top tier QB's, but Wilson's numbers won't blow you away early in the game and Kaepernick has been off all year long. Rivers would be the best pure throwing QB this Colts team has faced and I think they could be in trouble especially when they set up third and short.

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