This very well could be the Sun Belt championship here. Arkansas State will make its first appearance on Tuesday night while Lafayette went on the road to beat what I think is a better Western Kentucky team than Arkansas State to continue their trend of going 21-8 ATS int heir last 29 road games. The Rajin Cajuns are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 to Arkansas State, but they are the only Sun Belt team they have not beaten the previous two years. However, they won't have to face Ryan Aplin anymore, and their turnover issues which cost them the game last year (-5 in the 50-27 loss) have not been an issue as they are +9 on the season.
Lafayette will runt he ball nearly 60% of the time and they gained 254 yards rushing on Western Kentucky, a run defense that had been playing well. Arkansas State's run defense is one of the worst ranked 117th in yards per carry and is even worse when they are facing a dual threat offense. Terrence Broadway is one of the best mid major QB's in the country and is a dual threat QB backed by a running game with Alonzo Harris having a solid season. Meanwhile Arkansas State thought they had a stud in David Oku, but he's struggling with just 3.92 ypc. Lafayette was able to stop a better rushing attack in Western Kentucky last week and they should have an easier time with Oku than they hand with Antonio Andrews who is a stud.
At the end of the day I'm betting on the better QB with the better running game with the better defense. I'm also betting on a team with a better 3rd down offense and defense and a better red zone offense and defense. Lafayette is also +9 in turnover margin while Arkansas State is +2. It's a small favorite to lay and my formulas love Lafayette as well
