Northwestern would have been favorites in this game a few weeks ago, but after the emotional loss against Ohio State, a game they could have easily had they had to go face Wisconsin who in my opinion is better than Ohio State. Last week was a clunker against Minnesota without their star offensive player Kain Colter who will return this week to make a huge impact against Iowa a team he's own in the past. Pat Fitzgerald is a good coach and this is a desperate Northwestern team that is better than it looked the last two weeks. I think we get tremendous value here and Iowa never runs any team out of the building.
Iowa has struggled to stop the run against good running teams and Northwestern still fits that bill. Northwestern should have success running on the edge where Iowa has issues containing. Iowa will be without their defensive leader in DE 5th year senior Dominic Alvis. Look for Fitzgerald to take shots in the passing game to loosen up the the run defense and that will be the difference. Iowa's passing game just is not there despite Jake Rudock showing flashes at times he's still only completing 59% of his passes for 11 TD's and 7 interceptions. Northwestern's pass defense is a strength and they are ball hawking with 13 interceptions already. Their weakness is getting beat deep, but Iowa's offense really does not possess the big play ability. Iowa just got done playing Ohio State, and it's really hard to get up for a game after you play Ohio State that just keeps winning.
Vanderbilt just came off a huge emotional win against a crippled Georgia team and is getting more respect than they deserve. Meanwhile A&M comes off another tough loss against Auburn. A&M has value for the first time in a while even at -17 points, because they can actually have success on defense for the first time all season as Vanderbilt will start a freshmen QB for the first time and he has to do it in a hostile environment on the road without a ton of talent. Patton Robinette is not going to have success particularly in the red zone and I'm sure he will have a few three and out as the defense will certainly play a lot of man in this game and stack the box to stop the run.
Vanderbilt's defense dominated Georgia, but that was bound to happen to Georgia with all the injuries they have had. Aaron Murray has never been a good road QB either, but now they have to face a balanced offense that can beat you with the run and the pass. The only other balanced offense Vanderbilt's defense faced was Missouri and they put up 51 points in their own building. A&M is mad about last week's loss and should hang up 50+ on Vanderbilt and I don't see Vanderbilt cracking 20 let alone 30.
