I faded BYU last week, and I backed Mississippi State last week and lost both games, but I feel good about the value we are getting in this match up. First of all BYU ran all over Michigan State at least that is what the headlines say and now everyone knows about Jamal Williams, but this is still a one dimensional offense that should not be laying over a TD at home. Michigan State has been decimated by injuries and I was naive to think Mark Dantonio would have answers a week ago for all of that. Miss State on the other hand ran into an Auburn team obviously that has the talent to contend for a national title, and it seems like it may be coming together for them especially with their defensive talent. BYU has had all kinds of issues on defense and what really makes me like this match up is they will give up some points here.

BYU has not faced a running QB all year. They missed out on Arizona's Dawkins. Fitzgerald also an under rated passer to this point in my opinion and I think he will connect on some passes to Fred Ross that help put them in position to steal one here. They certainly need it if they want to go to a bowl game. There is also a huge difference in Michigan State trying to run the ball and Miss State who ranks 23rd in yards per carry while the Spartans rank 83rd. BYU has faced some bad running offenses along the way and have given up over 4 yards per carry to 4 of 6 of them. The last time they came off a road game they lost to UCLA despite holding them to 50 yards rushing. Their offense was not the same rushing for just 23 yards in that game.

Speaking of rushing the ball that's the key to BYU's one dimensional offense behind RB Jamal Williams who is a star. Taysom Hill is no longer the same guy and Ty Detmer does not want him running if they can help it, but this team is very different form a few years ago. They no longer run tempo and they are establishing an identity of a run first offense. Their 4 home games this season have been decided by 10 points in total. They play a lot of close games. It just so happens they ran away with the game against Michigan State last week. I don't see that happening here against Miss state, who you could argue has the best run defense they have faced all year. Miss State ranks 32nd in yards per carry allowed. They have had weak moments, but when they faced good running teams like LSU they held them on the road 1.66 yards below their season average. Auburn sort of grinded it away on them but they still held Auburn .73 yards under their season average. BYU has faced many bad run defenses this year and were lucky enough to face Michigan State without a lot of their defense. I just think we are getting too much value in this game with teams looking like they are going in opposite directions.

I think Miss State steps up and has themselves in position to win this game late with the ball in Nick Fitzgeralds hands. It also gives me confidence that they have turned the ball over just 6 times this year. They are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss and BYU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. SEC foe.

Where to find Freddy?