The under is 20-6 in the Chiefs last 26 games after allowing 150+ yards rushing in the previous game and 8-3-1 in their last 12 road games vs. a winning team. For the Colts the under is 15-6 in their last 21 home games and I really expect them to struggle today. The Chiefs gave up a ton of points down the stretch which really gives u some value here because their defense was really worn down to close the year. They just played these Colts a few weeks ago where Andrew Luck had 23 points on the road and I think they hold him under that total. Three times this year Andrew Luck faced a defense for the second time and 3 times he scored less points and this time he goes against a rested defense that's tops in the league. Luck is a star in this league, but the elite defenses are just a bit ahead of him as far as making adjustments.
For KC their offense gets to face a bad rushing defense on the road and that has only happened once this year and they won 23-13 on the road over Buffalo. I really think this offense was held back in recent weeks once they knew they were not going to get the bye and would likely face the Colts in round 1. Chiefs offense has scored more the second time around this season 24 to 56 and 17 to 28 vs. Denver and Oakland and then 38 to 24 vs. the Chargers without their starters in there. I expect this offense to put up something in the 20's while holding the Colts in the teens.
