I love Purdue tonight as our top play as Northwestern comes off a huge win on the road against Indiana as a +13 under dog. They held the Hoosiers to 25% shooting which had more to do with just how bad Indiana was than how good NW's defense is. Northwestern also has another ranked opponent on deck in Iowa at home who is ranked 10th overall. Purdue has already won 2 of their 3 road games as an under dog in conference play and covered all three and I think this is just a bad match up for Northwestern who relies far too much on the three ball.
Purdue is defending the perimeter well of late allowing just over 30% in their last 5 while Northwestern will huck up over 40% of their shots from outside they are only shooting 26% in their last 5 and 36% overall in their last 5. Sure Northwestern can beat anyone on any given night, but I don't see them winning this game as they are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 following a SU win and 1-9 ATS following an ATS win. Purdue will have a significant advantage on rebounding and ability to force turnovers as well.
