Troy -6.5 (10-2 Sun Belt) vs. North Texas (9-4 C-USA)
Coaching
Seth Littrell has done an outstanding job reviving this North Texas program in his second year he has them going back to a bowl game and challenging to tie a club record 10th win. Coaching staff is in tack for now including OC Graham Harrell, the strength of the team.
Troy's Neal Brown in his third year at Troy and is 24-13 has to be on the list for a few coaching jobs if not now definitely next year. His DC, the strength of the team Byron Hardmon is rumored to be joining the Georgia staff next year.
Location, Conferences & Motivation:
Troy is about a 5 hour drive from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome while North Texas is about 8 hours away or an hour and a half flight.
Conference USA has gone 4-2 this year against the Sun Belt, and 15-5 since 2014 yet North Texas out of the Sun Belt is a 5.5 point dog. The Sun Belt has faced off against Conference USA in this bowl game the last three years with C-USA winning 2 of those games SU & ATS. The game Conference USA lost was in 2013 as Tulane fell to Louisiana Lafayette as 1 point favorites. I feel this spread is a bit inflated.
North Texas lost their bowl appearance last year while Troy actually won their bowl game. North Texas 2-6 career in bowl games while Troy is 3-3. Motivation on the side of North Texas in my opinion here. They also want to get to that 10th win which nobody was expecting out of them. If they get that 10th win they will tie the 1947 North Texas team for most wins in a season.
North Texas plays in a better conference, and they have more motivation and they are dogs. Also worth noting Troy's highlight of their season came in their last game win over Arkansas State. A team they could not beat to get over the hump, but finally did. They also got a win at LSU so playing North Texas can't be as exciting.
X's & O's
I'll be breaking the match up down a bit more in depth in my actual pick if I have one.
North Texas strength is on offense as they have #19 rank in total yards and they are pretty balanced, but definitely a better passing team behind Mason Fine. Their rushing defense is a weakness which definitely was obvious in the conference championship game at Florida Atlantic. They rank 107th vs. the run.
Troy's strength is defense ranking #27 in total yards allowed, but their weakness is against the pass ranking #69. They also can throw the ball, but are more one dimensional on offense ranking 34th passing and 85th rushing. The match-up clearly favors North Texas from that perspective and I'll be interested to see how Troy fared against similar offenses and how North Texas fared against similar defenses.
Lean: North Texas +7 as I have seen a few out there. This line will continue to climb in my opinion.
